Peyton Young

The Spread of Innovations through Social Learning
 

The overall shape of an adoption curve depends on the particular mechanism that describes why individuals adopt. This paper examines the implications of four distinct models of adoption behavior: inertia, imitation, hearsay, and learning. It is shown that learning models lead to a novel class of adoption curves that have not been studied before except in special cases. A distinctive feature of learning models is that they frequently yield super-exponential growth rates in the early phases of adoption. This fact that can be used to distinguish statistically between learning models and those generated by alternative mechanisms.